Happy Wednesday. Here's what's moving in prediction markets this week.
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🎤 FIRST SPEAKERS ANNOUNCED FOR PREDICTION MARKETS CONFERENCE 2026
We're revealing the first wave of speakers for Prediction Conference 2026 later this week, and it's a strong lineup.
Returning names include Flip Pidot, one of the most recognizable voices in the prediction markets world. New additions include Olivia Santarelli, Head of Marketing at Gemini, Mick Bransfield, Kwon Park, Managing Director at Crypto.com, Dr. Laila Mintas, CEO and Founder of 365Prediction, Miguel Morel, CEO of Arkham Intelligence, and John Phillips, founder of PredictIt, the pioneering political prediction market.
Phillips's appearance is well-timed: Prediction Conference 2026 runs November 3-5 in Las Vegas, squarely in the middle of the midterm election cycle. Political markets will be one of the most watched categories on the agenda.
Additional speakers will be announced on a rolling basis.
Register for Prediction Markets Conference 2026 at standard pricing ($997). If you want to be considered as a speaker, apply at predictionmarketsconference.com.
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📺 SESSION RECAP: MICK BRANSFIELD: HISTORY OF PREDICTION MARKETS
Mick Bransfield's session at Prediction Conference was one of the most talked-about of the event: a deep dive into the history of prediction markets, from early political forecasting to today's billion-dollar platforms.
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📺 SESSION RECAP: DOMER & SCOTTILICIOUS: THE TRADING FLOOR
Domer and Scottilicious brought the energy in their joint session, sharing how they approach prediction markets as traders, the strategies that work, and the bets that paid off.
Speaking of which, @scottonpoly recently shared that he walked away with $88,817.04 on a single Polymarket position (a bet on Graham Platner going 2x). Not a bad week.
All sessions from Prediction Conference are available at predictionmarketsconference.com/watch
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⚖️ POLYMARKET x WSJ: THE ALLEGATIONS
The Wall Street Journal published an investigation finding that Polymarket secretly paid social media creators, via a marketing contractor called Virality, to post staged fake winning-bet videos targeting US users, who are barred from the platform. The campaign ran across TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram, generating 140 million views on roughly $1.9 million in fabricated bets. Creators were paid not to disclose the relationship.
A separate WSJ investigation also found that nearly 20% of Polymarket's dispute resolution judges held financial stakes in the markets they were adjudicating. Polymarket has not issued a formal response to either investigation. Full breakdown →
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🏦 SCHWAB ENTERING PREDICTION MARKETS
Charles Schwab is allegedly planning to launch event-based options tied to the S&P 500, a clear move into prediction market territory.
This follows Kalshi's expansion into Canada and signals that institutional players are taking prediction markets seriously.
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⚽ WORLD CUP 2026: WINNERS, LOSERS & THE BIGGEST TRADES
The World Cup has been a prediction market goldmine and graveyard for traders around the world.
Some highlights so far:
Big upsets flipped early favorites overnight, wiping out heavily-backed positions
Traders who faded conventional wisdom on group stage outcomes cleaned up
At least one position reportedly hit seven figures in profit
Others chased momentum into losing bets as underdogs continued to outperform
It's a live case study in how public sentiment and market prices diverge, and how fast things can move when a 90th-minute goal changes everything.
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🏢 ZUCKERBERG IS BUILDING A PREDICTION MARKET: WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT META'S "ARENA"
Mark Zuckerberg has approved development of a standalone prediction market app at Meta, internally codenamed Arena. Per The New York Times, it would operate independently of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, though those platforms could funnel users toward it.
In its current form, Arena involves no real money. Users earn points for correctly predicting real-world outcomes, a points-based system similar to a video game. Sources called it "experimental but a top priority." Real-money wagering could follow.
The scale is what matters. Meta has 3.3 billion monthly active users. Polymarket peaked at roughly 300,000 active monthly traders. Meta's entry would be the single largest distribution play in prediction market history. X moved first, partnering with Polymarket in June 2025. Meta is building its own.
Full breakdown: Read more🌍 GLOBAL REGULATION: 8 OF 12 MAJOR MARKETS RESTRICTING OR BANNING PREDICTION MARKETS
A Bloomberg intelligence survey of 12 countries maps the global regulatory landscape for prediction markets. The US is the only major economy building a regulated framework, with the CFTC's June 2026 NPRM moving toward clarity on sports contracts. Everywhere else, the trajectory is restriction, enforcement, or outright ban.
Ontario has already banned Polymarket. Singapore blocked it in December 2024. South Korea is criminally investigating individual users. Brazil blocked ~27 platforms. The EU classifies financial event contracts as binary options, off-limits to retail investors. The UK requires a commercial gambling license to operate.
One alternative model gaining attention: SafeBets.world, a New York platform that strips out the wager entirely. Users predict financial markets and earn Unicoins for accuracy, with no deposit and no money at risk. The platform trades on those aggregated prediction signals itself, distributing half the profits to top predictors as Unicoin awards. The legal theory: no wager, no gambling, no regulatory jurisdiction. The company is raising $2.1 billion and targeting 200 million users by 2030.
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🎙️ SESSION RECAP: MICK BRANSFIELD ON THE HISTORY OF PREDICTION MARKETS
Mick Bransfield took the stage at the April 2026 Prediction Markets Conference and delivered one of the most talked-about sessions of the event. He traced prediction markets from their academic origins in the late 1980s through the regulatory battles that shaped the landscape traders operate in today.
For anyone who entered the space in the last few years, it was a map of the terrain they stepped into. Bransfield has followed the industry from its earliest experiments through every major inflection point, and his session gave that history the context it deserves.
Watch the full session at predictionmarketsconference.com/watch.
⚖️ CFTC SUES KENTUCKY: NINTH STATE BATTLE, FIRST RED STATE
The CFTC filed a federal lawsuit against Kentucky on June 23, 2026, making it the ninth state the agency has sued to defend exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets. Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman sued Kalshi and Polymarket the prior week, accusing both of operating illegal sportsbooks.
Kentucky also passed a 14.25% excise tax on prediction market transaction fees. The CFTC treated both the lawsuit and the tax as separate grounds for federal intervention, calling the tax effectively designed to push regulated platforms out of the state.
What makes Kentucky notable: Coleman is a Republican, making this the first red state the CFTC has sued. Every prior target had a Democratic attorney general. The bipartisan nature of state resistance changes the political framing around prediction market regulation.
📈 KALSHI CEO CONFIRMS IPO TALKS: NOT THIS YEAR
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour appeared on CNBC Squawk Box on June 24 and confirmed the company is thinking about going public, while making clear it will not happen in 2026. The Information had reported last week that a listing was unlikely before late 2027 or 2028.
The valuation context makes the conversation inevitable. Kalshi was worth $2 billion a year ago. After a Series F in May 2026, it is now valued at $22 billion, with annualized revenue reportedly past $2 billion.
Mansour also addressed insider trading, the credibility problem prediction markets need to solve before institutional adoption can scale. He pointed to enhanced employer disclosure requirements and enforcement actions Kalshi has already brought against individual traders.