This week's edition of Prediction Signals is sponsored by Connamara Technologies. Read their Guide to Prediction Market Technology →
Connamara Technologies: The Infrastructure Behind the Next Generation of Exchanges
Sponsor Spotlight
As event-based trading moves from niche to mainstream, the technology underneath the market has become the deciding factor in who succeeds. Connamara's EP3 platform gives operators the full stack they need, a matching engine, clearing, and market surveillance, to launch and run a regulated event exchange faster. The firm has packaged its perspective into a new resource for anyone building in the space.
Federal Judge Blocks Minnesota's Prediction Market Ban
Regulatory
A federal judge granted a preliminary injunction pausing Minnesota's first-of-its-kind prediction market ban, just days before it was set to take effect. Following lawsuits from the DOJ, the CFTC, Kalshi, and Polymarket, Judge Katherine Menendez found the plaintiffs likely to succeed on their claim that federal law pre-empts the ban. It is the clearest signal yet of how the federal-preemption fight may resolve.
Kalshi Goes 1-for-2: A Win in Minnesota, a Setback in New York
Regulatory Scorecard
The headline was not a clean sweep. As Steve Bittenbender noted, Kalshi went 1-for-2 across a single stretch of rulings. It won the Minnesota injunction alongside Polymarket and the CFTC, but a New York judge rejected its request to block state gaming officials from acting against it. The split is the real story: federal registration has weight, but not every court is ready to foreclose state action.
Fanatics to Acquire an Exchange and Clearinghouse from BGC
Industry and M&A
Fanatics has agreed to acquire Water Street Labs, a CFTC-registered exchange, and CX Clearinghouse, a CFTC-registered clearing organization, from BGC Group. The deal gives Fanatics Markets ownership of its full regulated stack and connects retail-focused prediction markets with the institutional marketplace for the first time. The two firms will also partner on market data products.
SafeBets Rewards the Sharpest Forecasters, No Wager Required
Platform Spotlight
SafeBets takes a different approach to prediction contests: participants compete to forecast real-world events, and the most accurate are recognized, with no wagering involved at any point. Ahead of the Unicoin token launch on September 28, the platform is spotlighting its top forecasters, including one recent winner who shared their experience in a short video.
Register Now for the Prediction Markets Conference
The Conference, Las Vegas, November 3-5
Everything in this week's edition, the regulatory fights, the deals, the new infrastructure, is happening in one room this November. More than 234 organizations have already registered, spanning exchanges, market makers, platform builders, investors, and the legal minds shaping the rules. This is the room where the deals get done.
Prediction Signals is the official newsletter of the Prediction Markets Conference, reaching 3,500+ traders, investors, operators, and founders across the industry. This week's edition sponsored by Connamara Technologies.