This week’s edition is sponsored by Connamara Technologies. As event-based trading moves from niche to mainstream, technology has become the differentiator. Connamara’s EP3 platform gives operators a faster path from idea to a live, regulated market. Read: Guide to Prediction Market Technology →
A lot moved this week. A brokerage started out-earning its stock desk on prediction trades, a new licensed sports market went nationwide, the state versus federal fight escalated, and capital kept pouring in. We are leading with our spotlight, then the stories that mattered.
PLATFORM SPOTLIGHT · 5 min read
Predyx: A Lightning-Native Prediction Market, Live and Raising
Our spotlight this week. Predyx is built entirely on Bitcoin’s Lightning Network, letting anyone create and trade markets in satoshis with near-instant settlement and an AI-powered market creator. Its founder and CEO, Derek Orr, will speak at the Prediction Markets Conference in Las Vegas this November. It is live in beta and now raising to scale, a different bet from the dollar-based giants and one worth watching. Read the full spotlight →
BUSINESS · 5 min read
Robinhood Now Makes More From Prediction Trades Than From Stocks
In the second quarter of 2026, Robinhood earned more from prediction trades than from stocks. Event-contract revenue hit $156 million, ahead of equities at $129 million and crypto at $100 million. And because event contracts monetize at roughly 2.5 percent per dollar versus a sliver of a cent for stocks, prediction markets have quietly become one of Robinhood’s most profitable lines. Charts inside. Read more →
INDUSTRY · 4 min read
Novig Launches Nationwide, Bringing Its Sports Prediction Market to Fans Across the Country
Novig launched its federally regulated sports prediction market nationwide after winning a CFTC Designated Contract Market license. The move makes it available to fans across the country and adds another licensed venue to a fast-consolidating category. Read more →
REGULATORY · 4 min read
New York Sues Kalshi for $36 Billion as the State vs CFTC War Escalates
New York became the largest state yet to move against prediction markets, filing suit on August 3 to ban Kalshi and claw back gains that could top $36 billion. Kalshi is leaning on federal preemption, and the CFTC has now taken legal action against nine states. The outcome of this fight, more than any single headline, will set the industry’s ceiling. Read more →
INDUSTRY AND M&A · 4 min read
The License Grab: Operators Are Buying Their Way Into Prediction Markets
In a single week, Fanatics moved to acquire a CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse, and IG Group confirmed a roughly $1.3 billion deal for Underdog. The pattern is clear: buy the license, do not build it. The scramble is turning the remaining independent registered venues into some of the most valuable assets in the space. Read more →
CAPITAL · 4 min read
The Money Flood: Mega-Valuations, ICE’s Bet, and the First Prediction-Market-Native Fund
Kalshi reached a roughly $40 billion valuation, ICE committed billions to Polymarket, and 5c(c) Capital launched as what may be the first venture fund built specifically for prediction-market startups. Capital is arriving at every layer of the stack, and it usually shows up just ahead of growth. Read more →
THE CONFERENCE
Prediction Markets Adds a VIP Tier
The Prediction Markets Conference is adding a VIP tier for the November event in Las Vegas. It includes a complimentary two-night stay at a five-star hotel, a seat at an exclusive VIP-only networking dinner, earlier access to session recordings, and more, with additional benefits to be announced. Early registration is open now and early pricing will increase shortly, so secure your place before rates go up. Register for the Prediction Markets Conference →
Prediction Signals is the official newsletter of the Prediction Markets Conference, reaching 3,500+ traders, investors, operators, and founders across the prediction markets industry.